Donald Trump’s Betting Odds Rising 24 Hours Before Election Day

Former President Donald Trump’s odds of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris are rising less than 24 hours before election day, according to an online betting platform.
Polymarket, which is funded in part by early Trump backer Peter Thiel, showed the former president with a 58 percent chance of winning as of Monday afternoon, while Harris has a 42 percent chance. The odds are based on the “collective wisdom” of wagers placed on the candidates, rather than outside factors like polling data.
“Trump’s odds are back on the rise,” Polymarket wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “Tomorrow is election day.”
Newsweek reached out to both campaigns for comment via email on Monday.
While Trump reached 67 percent on Polymarket on October 30, the former president’s odds then plummeted for several days. His odds had dropped to 53 percent by early on Sunday, just hours after one of the country’s most accurate pollsters released a poll that shockingly showed Harris winning Iowa by 3 percentage points.
Reports emerged last month suggesting that the election odds on Polymarket may be manipulated. The platform later identified a single French national as the owner of four accounts that wagered over $50 million in bets on Trump, according to The Independent. Polymarket doesn’t permit U.S. users to bet on the election.
On betting platform Kalshi, which does allow bets from U.S. users, the election odds have taken a similar trajectory. While Trump had a 64 percent to 36 percent lead last week, his odds fell sharply a short time later and the candidates moved into a tie within hours of the Iowa poll’s release. Trump was leading Harris by 54 percent to 46 percent on the platform as of Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, Harris was favored slightly on PredictIt, where the vice president was shown with a 54 percent chance of becoming the first woman to serve as president at the time of publication.
With more than 77.3 million votes having already been cast in early and absentee voting across the nation, polls continue to suggest the race remains neck-and-neck. An average of recent national polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight showed Harris with a slim 1.1 percent lead as of Monday. The polling picture was similar in all seven battleground states.
In the FiveThirtyEight averages, Harris had leads of 1 percent in Michigan and Wisconsin on Monday, while Trump had 1 percent leads in North Carolina and Georgia and a 2 percent lead in Arizona. The candidates were tied in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Recent results have been within margins of error for nearly all of the polls.